Thursday, September 10, 2015

على الاغلب: لا لم يشتري الاردنيون عقارات ب 876 مليون دولار في دبي في 2014

بجسب الارقام الرسمية من حكومة دبي ، تصدر الاردنيون الجنسيات العربية غير الخليجية في معاملات العقار في امارة دبي في 2014 والربع الاول من 2015 بقيمة 876 مليون دولار عبر 1232 معاملة عقارية. نظرة فاحصة للارقام الرسمية تبين انه _على عكس ما تصوره الكثيريون في الاردن_ لم يعن هذا خروجا للنقود من الاردن باتجاه دبي.

شكلت المعاملات العقارية في دبي المتعلقة بالاردنيين ما نسبته 1.88% من مجمل المعاملات العقارية في دبي في ذات الفترة و 1.14% من قيمة هذه المعاملات العقارية. وبما ان التقديرات تشير الى ان عدد الاردنيين في الامارات العربية المتحدة يتجاوز 200 الف بنسبة تناهز 2% من مجمل سكان الامارات فان حصة الاردنيين من مجمل التعامل العقاري في دبي منسجمة تماما مع نسبتهم من سكان الامارة.

الاهم كذلك ان مجمل " المعاملات العقارية" يشمل معاملات البيع والرهونات. فقد شكلت الرهونات ربع المعاملات العقارية في دبي في 2014 بقيمة 44% من قيمة كافة المعاملات العقارية و 87% من قيمة معاملات البيع. على فرض ان معاملات الاردنيين العقارية كانت على نفس النسبة العامة فيكون الاستنتاج ان الاردنيين الذين اشتروا عقارات في دبي اعتمدوا على البنوك الامارتية لتمويل 87% من قيمة العقارات المشتراه بقيمة 459 مليون دولار.

تبين كذلك نفس الارقام الرسمية ان الاردنيين يختارون عقارات اصغر من المعدل العام. فيبنما بلغ معدل قيمة المعاملات العقارية في دبي مليون و 170 الف دولار كان معدل المعاملات العقارية للاردنيين اقل ب 40% بقيمة 711 الف دولار لكل معاملة. 

اذن_وعلى الاغلب_ لا لم يحول الاردنيون 876 مليون دولار من الاردن لشراء عقارات في دبي بل اشترى حوالي الف اردني _معظمهم من الاردنيين القاطنين في دبي_ عقارات بقيمة 459 مليون دولار في 2014 و الربع الاول من 2015.  وقد مولوا 415 مليون دولار منها عبر قروض عقارية من بنوك الامارات.

لا شك ان هذه قصة نجاح واضحة لدبي بعدما جعلت العاملين الاردنيين فيها يستثمرون تحويشاتهم في قطاعها العقاري. وهم على الاغلب يفعلون هذا بدلا عن دفع الايجار كنوع من الاستثمار متوسط الى طويل الامد.  وهو ما يظهر _بشكل جلي _ رغبتهم في البقاء في دبي لمدة طويلة .

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Jordanian real-estate purchases in Dubai: Not what they seem


Jordanians lead Arab Nationalities in real-estate purchases in Dubai. In 2014 and Q1 2015, Jordanians accounted for 1232 real-estate transactions in Dubai with a total value of 876 million US$. Some media reports in Jordan suggested that Jordanians moved this amount out of Jordan into Dubai. A closer examination of the figures suggests otherwise.

Dubai’s property market has rebounded well. Dubai Land Department's (DLD) reported that the total amount of real estate transactions recorded in the emirate in 2014 exceeded AED 218 billion, through 53871 transactions. The DLD revealed that sales accounted for 51% of total value of transactions while mortgages accounted for 44%. The total number of sales transactions reached 38,113 transactions with the value exceeding AED 112 billion. The market recorded 12,511 mortgage transaction exceeding AED 97 billion, while the remaining operations accounted 3,227 transaction with a total value of AED 10 billion. For Q1 2015, real estate transactions exceeded AED 64 billion, through 11,603 transactions. Sales registered 8,000 transactions with the a total value of AED 24 billion, while the mortgages totaled AED 37 billion in 3,000 mortgage transactions.

Many Jordanians choose to buy in Dubai’s real-estate. In 2014, the DLD's report revealed that Jordanian investors ranked highest in terms of number of transactions with a total of 1,028 transactions at nearly AED 2.513 billion worth of deals. They were followed by citizens of Egypt with 874 transaction with a total of AED 1.768 billion, followed by Lebanese investors with a total of 785 transaction with a total amount of AED 2.068 billion, while Iraqi nationals came in fifth place with 650 transaction with a total amount of AED 1.631 billion. In Q1, 2015, DLD's report revealed that Jordanian investors also ranked highest in terms of number of transactions at nearly AED 708 million worth of deals through 204 transactions. They were followed by citizens of Egypt with 184 investors with a total of AED 390 million, followed by Lebanese investors with 172 investors with a total amount of AED 505 million, while Iraqi nationals came in fifth place with 153 investors with a total amount of AED 379 million. They were followed by Yemen, Sudan, Palestine and Algeria. 

So, in 2014 and Q1 2015, Jordanians accounted for 1232 real-estate transactions in Dubai with a total value of 876 million US$. Some media reports in Jordan suggested that Jordanians moved this amount out of Jordan into Dubai. A closer examination of the figures suggests otherwise:

Jordanian real-estate transactions in Dubai constituted 1.88% of the total number of transactions and 1.14% of the total value of real-estate transactions in Dubai in 2014 and Q1 2015. As there are close to 200,000 Jordanians in the UAE, representing some 2% of the UAE population, the share of Jordanians seems in line with their share of Dubai’s population.

The figures also suggest that Jordanians are bargain hunters. Jordanian real-estate transactions in Dubai were quite smaller than the total average. The average transaction value for Jordanians was 711,000 US$ in 2014 and Q1 2015, lower by 40% from the total average in Dubai which stood at 1.17 million US$.

What the figures clearly suggest is that Jordanians working in Dubai are now quite open to putting their savings into Dubai’s real-estate. Dubai’s liberal real-estate rules that allow foreigners to buy easily into the market have clearly succeeded.

Mortgages tell the rest of the story. A full quarter of all real-estate transactions reported in Dubai were mortgages, representing 44% of total value of the real-estate transactions in Dubai (and a full 87% of total sales transactions) in 2014. Assuming that Jordanians purchases in Dubai relied on mortgages at the same rate, then it follows that Jordanians relied on UAE banks to finance close to 87% of their real-estate purchases in Dubai. Moreover, it follows that Jordanian purchases of Dubai real-estate by Jordanians totaled an estimated 459 million US$.

Basically, the most logical conclusion from the published figures is as follows: Jordanian residents in Dubai bought offices, houses and apartments at an average price of 711,000 US$ to save on rent or serve as rental properties. The total purchases were 459 million US$ in 2014 and Q1 2015 of which some 415 million US$ were financed by mortgages from UAE banks. That money did not leave Jordan because it was never in Jordan to start with.

This is yet another example of Dubai’s success in getting expatriates to invest their savings in the country away from the classical method of repatriating all their savings to the home country.